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After Gadhafi, Libya's oil will flow - slowly
10-20-2011, 10:04 PM #1
Tacolover II Member
Posts:377 Threads:59 Joined:Feb 2011
Now this is a bunch of BULLSHIT, oil shot straight up when the Libya's oil production slowed. Now they say no shortage of oil? The Why the FUCK we paying more than $3.00/US Gallon. Now I smell BULLSHIT.

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Even with Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi dead, analysts say it will likely take years for the country's oil production to return to full capacity.

It's thought that Libya is producing about 350,000 barrels of oil per day, up from near zero during the depths of the conflict earlier this year.



Most of this oil goes to Europe, given its proximity and the previous longstanding U.S. embargo against the dictatorship. Italy's Eni (E) is the largest operator in the country.

Libya could probably double its current production relatively quickly, which at current prices might fetch $80 million or so daily on the open market. But a return to its prewar output of 1.6 million barrels a day, which could bring in hundreds of millions of dollars, is slow and complicated work.

Extensive repairs on old damaged oil fields will likely be required, and the challenge of Libya's new fractured leadership agreeing on how to divvy up the oil wealth remains daunting.

"We believe we will struggle to resume previous 1.6 million barrel-per-day levels even through 2014," Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey wrote in a recent research note.

It's unclear how much damage Libya's oil fields have suffered. Officials with the rebel movement have said oil production could ramp up to pre-war levels in a little more than a year, sentiments that have been echoed by some in OPEC.
Libyan peace could bring oil bonanza

But outside analysts say that's optimistic. Oil infrastructure can be a fickle thing. Even if the wells aren't blown up in battle, if they're not continuously maintained they can fail quickly, especially the older variety that account for most of Libya's infrastructure.

Plus, any extensive repairs would need to be done in a country where the ports and roads are damaged, and where many of the oil industry's trucks and even much of its basic office equipment is thought to have been looted.

"We estimate that it will take around 36 months for the country to recover its full production capacity," the energy research firm Wood Mackenzie wrote in a recent report.

But the technical challenges may pale in comparison to the political ones.

As Deutsche's Banks's Sankey noted, Libya is a country of 140 different tribes and factions.

While it's thought the new government will honor old oil contracts at least temporarily as a means of gaining revenue, new laws will eventually need to be passed regarding how much in royalties companies have to pay, and how they are divvied up among the various political groups."


10-21-2011, 12:30 AM #2
Octo Mother Superior
Posts:40,944 Threads:1,563 Joined:Feb 2011
Shouldn't be much of a shock to anyone by now sad2.gif
Anonymous Kritter Show this Post
10-21-2011, 02:43 AM #3
Anonymous Kritter Incognito Anonymous
As long as oil remains high the system remains artificially propped up. Follow the money printing trail based on petro dollars.
10-21-2011, 02:52 AM #4
Octo Mother Superior
Posts:40,944 Threads:1,563 Joined:Feb 2011
You only need to keep an eye on the gas prices for a while to see what's going on, at least around here, it's only adjusted in one direction 13.gif



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