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Do what you must, come what may - The war in Ukraine ends Peremoga
08-26-2014, 08:53 AM #1
karutzar Member
Posts:256 Threads:27 Joined:Dec 2012
Do what you must, come what may - The war in Ukraine ends Peremoga


Hello all. I found a nice competent article in russian blog. I translated it through google translate, but maybe Smolensk can do appropriate translation.
The article is "must to read" - it explains the reality in east Ukraine from military point of view. Google translate didn't let me translate all page - it gave me error. That's why I don't post just google translate link. Have a nice read :)

http://kungurov.livejournal.com/94013.html

http://kungurov.livejournal.com/94412.html

İmage

We used to look at the civil war in the Ukraine with biased position: here are our (fighters for the United Ukraine, Russian patriots underline) - they are good fellows, are always right and therefore will win; the enemies (terrorists, Bandera foshizdy underline) - they are fiends and therefore doomed to fail, so they all soon die and burn in hell. But, in fact, win or lose on the battlefield is only slightly dependent on who professes and what ideology, especially on what is broadcasting zomboyaschik that the most terrible defeat obyaavit easy victory. Therefore I propose to look at the situation detached, taking into account only the military and partly by economic factors.

If you look at the situation superficially, things have militias (separatists) are hopeless: we're coming out to the army-an advantage in armor 5 times, in manpower - 3 times in the artillery - to 10-fold advantage in the supply of the total, in the aviation industry - the absolute (in militia aviation is not). In operational terms, there are two pockets of resistance - Lugansk and Donetsk, between which there is little or no interaction. Structurally from insurgents unlike forces ATO no unified command, reserves, supply system. And then the question arises: why ukroem-army still has not unrolled separable into a pancake?

To answer this question, we need to consider the situation in the dynamics of four months ago, the militias were a motley mob, armed with hunting rifles and guns taken away from the cops. Artillery and armored vehicles they had, they had a negligible number. Nevertheless, ukroem-fighters, even with all indicators preponderance 20-50 / 1 failed to achieve any tangible success.

Yes, spring Kiev defeated political - lost the Crimea, in the capital were busy sharing out of power, they were not up to the Donbass. However, the problem could be solved by force. Could, if Ukraine had an army. But the fact of the matter is that in March-April, the army was not in Kiev. People were in the form of weapon lying in warehouses, storage tanks at bases rusted, aircraft on the ground stood in neat rows, and some even were beautifully painted. But the armed forces capable of carrying out tasks assigned to them, it was not. Simply put, to send into battle was absolutely nobody and nothing to fight, too.

While soldiers were given guns and showed how out shoot them (if someone does not know, the military weapons in peacetime see rarely, and certainly do not like it and do not know how to use it), yet rolled out of the hangar APCs, but found a of them, in principle, capable to drive up to the loading station as received from the warehouses of tents and ammunition, while immersed with grief in half in trains and somewhere to come, the time was hopelessly lost. But even arriving at the theater of war, all these thousands of armed men in the form of have not become army. It was such a disorganized rabble, as well as militia, and at this stage quantitative advantage ukroem-army was not an advantage but a disadvantage. Axiom of military affairs says: The more troops, the most damaging consequences of disorganization.

Actually, for the loss of combat capability is not necessary to engage in battle with the enemy. Not enough to feed three days the soldiers, and the army just run away - the soldiers wander off in areas bartering their weapons for food and warm clothes. And so it happened, so it is still in ukroem-Military: desertion - perhaps the most significant paper losses of personnel.

But the militia in this sense, it was much easier. Firstly, their number was very small, but because they were able to achieve a local organization very quickly. Therefore, it was initially separatists seized the initiative and forced the enemy raiding that manner of fighting, which gave them an advantage, given the great local knowledge and mobility. Yes, in spite of the presence of troops ukroem-considerable number of armored vehicles and even aircraft, militias had greater mobility. They used civilian vehicles, while ukry his armor at best used as a stationary weapon emplacements. Well, even for water and food, they drove an APC.

A very important factor - the presence of team personnel. In ukroem-army officers had a lot of - puzatenky peasants with big stars on their epaulettes and swollen from sitting too long at the table bums, but warlords, ie experts in management of the fight, was not. It's not even the fact that the Ukrainian army is never ever fought. In peacetime, military experts support the professional form through combat training, maneuvers, staff exercises, and so on. D. Ukroem In-army battalion exercises what took place, they even company tactical exercises did not practice because of a lack of funding. For complacency replaced combat training "working off in the classroom." Well, that is sent to the top of paper that the issues worked out in the classroom, even though in reality these classes nobody spent their utter uselessness. Well, or carried out formally.

As a result ukroem officers did not know how the most basic - read a map, use the radio, did not know how to organize patrols, outposts, interact with neighbors and delivery of weapons. I've said nothing about how to conduct a military operation. And quite naturally dolboibizma level commanders have been greater, the longer they were in the army and took up position. Over the 23 years that the Soviet Union ceased to exist almost completely gone generation of Soviet officers who have at least some experience. Today's generals on the decline of the restructuring were young lieutenants. During the time of making a career they are completely forgotten what they were taught in Soviet military academies, and new skills are not acquired for the above reasons.

Militias also in the sense of command cadres lucky just fantastic - one Igor Girkin (arrow) has great practical combat experience than the entire Ukrainian General Staff. To the place came and a former lieutenant colonel of the Russian Army Igor Bezler ("Demon"), adopted in 2003 a Ukrainian citizenship, Alexei Khodakovsky (former commander of the Donetsk "Alpha"). A crucial role played by the Russian volunteers - veterans of the war in Chechnya. Finally, among the volunteers themselves very large contingent of 50-year-old men, and even older, among which are those that have to do some fighting in Afghanistan.

So, at the initial stage of armed confrontation militia, acting under the command of an active experienced commanders, not only inflicted a moral defeat, but also a major contribution to its arsenal by captured military equipment and weapons. I mean things under Slavonic in April-July this year. Of course, ukroem-propaganda desperately vereschit columns of Russian tanks coming to the aid of the separatists, and the hordes of mercenaries GRU FSB, which together with the Chechen gangs of thugs daily by thousands cross the border and join the ranks of the terrorists, but seriously, this verbal diarrhea is not worth taking. Until May-month border was generally under the control of Ukrainian border guards. The number of Russian volunteers fighting in the Donets Basin, is estimated at a maximum of 500 people for all time. This is one battalion in the Army's standards.

Kiev has made a huge mistake, deciding to fight the insurgency, without however a viable army. As a result of inept army and began to rebel principal source of arms and ammunition. Well, something, of course, was captured in warehouses and military units stationed in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, but it was a weapon, quite frankly, not the most modern. However, even the SKS carbine from the Second World go into business, and anti-tank guns, decommissioned during the Great Patriotic War, though useless against tanks, well Leaky any light armored vehicles.

As a result, we are seeing throughout the conflict the following picture: the number, training and equipping the militia is growing rapidly, while the fighting capacity of the army ukroem-falls. Frantic attempts to increase the number of troops ATO lead to even greater loss of combat capability due to the reasons described above - the completion comes the army has largely demoralized, chaos increases. Ukry reason called it "a betrayal of the summit," but it is a long tradition - to explain the betrayal that is easily understandable cowardice and stupidity. Human parts that could become the backbone for the deployment of the army, are ground in the boilers. Escaped most of these boilers is sent to a mental hospital, where they were, in fact after experiencing the place. 40-year-old "reservists" and 20-year-old conscripts who came to the front for the replacement of ground in the battle parts are weaker than those they replaced.

In general, think about only - militias that began four months ago with the defense lined up awkwardly roadblocks, ambushes and night raids, are the regular army mobile warfare, organize boilers, hold the commanding heights by implementing a counter armored group and operations on the environment! At least half of the Ukrainian Air Force combat-ready forces destroyed. Dynamics of processes strongly in favor of Ukrainian law enforcers.
Yes, most of the DNI and LC controlled punitive group, but from a military point of view, it brings them nothing but harm. Firstly, stretched communication, and forces them to provide clearly not enough, because saboteurs separatists are already in Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions. Secondly, clutching a ring around insurgents ukry increase their density, to create a continuous front. And the denser the battle formations of the enemy, the harder they are to break through - it's so obvious! On the same conduct offensive operations in ukroem-army general enormous problems.

Inside the arc spanning Donetsk and Lugansk, militias can maneuver forces much faster than the opponent on the outside cover. For this reason, attempts to take the Donetsk and Lugansk in the ring, parried spectacular counterattacks. But ukry can no longer quickly moving forces, for example, to save Debalcevo Izvarinskogo boiler - haul too long turns, and the front has just created it, baring impossible, and that one never knows, again Gunmen in Slovyansk back - shame no end. So encircled Ukrainian command does not help, not because it is cruel and heartless, but because the rescue operation could pose even more terrible defeat. In the meantime, sit encircled in boilers, they somehow engage the considerable strength of the separatists.

Literate from an operational point of view, it does not squeeze out the militia from the area and surrounding pockets of resistance, and ironing them separately. Actually, it acted as the Russian army in Chechnya - blocking groups of separatists and destroying them in the boilers. If they stupidly squeezed into the mountains, the war in the Caucasus was'd probably still. But the Ukrainian army is not able to master even the tactical cooperation on the battlefield, much less able to correctly solve the problems of an operational nature. Ukry quite smoothly released from the Slavic group Strelkova - idiots rejoiced recovery flag over City Hall Slavic, although from an operational point of view, it was a defeat. It was after the reunification with the Donetsk group strelkovtsev DNR began the very maneuverable war, to which the Ukrainian army was totally unprepared, with the result that she has suffered a series of disastrous failures. Law enforcers have failed, pardon the pun, with Slovyansk numerical superiority 15 \ 1. On what they hope for when the balance of forces has changed to 5 \ 1?

Ukroem-fighters were not able to realize even the indisputable advantage of armored forces. Many people, mindful of the fact that a year ago I buried tanks, as irrelevant in modern warfare weapons, trying to challenge my argument: that the early take tanks for scrap, in the civil war in the Ukraine they are actively used by both sides. Question should be put in another way: what is the efficiency of the use of tanks? That is, the more accurate was the southern cauldron in which up more than 3 thousand ukroem-security officials. Here is a narrow bridge at Amvrosiivka. Classic problem - a massive blow to release the tank its force. Ukrainians have at least 2 thousand. Tanks. In building a smaller, but just a couple of hundred there. There is no militia aviation, representing for the tanks the biggest threat, there is a tank group to parry the blow. Well ...? In fact, we see that tank attacks more likely to be ineffective or even impossible initially. Here, they say, if not controlled militia commanding heights - Saur-Tomb, and even if they did not have the trophy "Grad", and even so RPG suddenly ran out, but they have forgotten how to lay land mines, and that the bridge was tankoprohodimymi - then tanks would have shown themselves, ord, ord. Militias quite effectively used tanks from ambush. When they try to operate armored vehicles in the open countryside, it all ends the same way as with the tank under the Slavic raid. In general, "Prokhorovka" near Donetsk wait useless.

As the old military wisdom, it is not the one who fights well, but the one who fights better. One of my friend Colonel, Head of the Department of tactics at the military academy pereinachil it in this fashion: the war importantly - less blunt than the opponent. For him, as a person who has visited the war, stupidity was a strategic factor. Stupidity on the part of Ukrainian strategists give odds over the most stupid warriors. There is an anecdote: God created the Austrian army, and he felt sad. Then he created the Italian army ...

Ukrainian army bozhenka created, not only with the booze. If tactically Ukrainian warriors act clumsily and quickly - illiterate, then stretegicheski - absolutely crazy, what to tell the next time. (Continued).

You can become a slave only by voluntary consent.
I am highly allergic to circumcised souls and red flags with Venusian star on them.
08-26-2014, 08:58 AM #2
karutzar Member
Posts:256 Threads:27 Joined:Dec 2012
Start here. Yesterday I ate a delicious pilaf on the Volkhov River in Kirishi (Leningrad region) in the rescue center. And the head of the center, a retired colonel Okoltko told how he wrote a thesis at the Academy of Armored Forces. The subject was very complex - analysis of combat effectiveness of the partisan movement during World War II.

The question is, why the hell tankman study guerrilla movement? So it was f Soviet military academy, and in the academies prepare officers are not combat arms (for this were military schools and refresher courses commanders), and military leaders. General, however, tanker Okolotko and did not, because the general's office, which he held in the Leningrad Military District (Deputy. Commander for combat training), was reduced in the course of large-scale cleaning army conducted after the famous flight of Rust. Gorbachev said the Soviet Army combat training tepericha not needed, we have been friends with America would be no war.

But, in fact, talking about the fact that the Soviet officers received serious academic training, the main value of which according to Colonel Okolotko was to train the ability to project thinking. So the study of the principles of guerrilla warfare - quite a pressing task for the commander.

But The present-day Ukrainian generals in Soviet military academies have not learned. And NATO's West Point did not listen to the lecture. And because they were martinet in the worst sense of the word. Everyone has heard the phrase "art of war", but few have pondered its meaning. Military - this is one of the highest forms of creative thought. Because war is not guns and tanks, fighting people, and above all, his head. Now tell me, who has the words "military service" is associated with the concept of "creativity"?

It was then, and it is necessary to seek the main reason for the defeat of the Ukrainian army on the Eastern Front (hope its defeat is already obvious to everyone except uprygavshihsya svidomye). In peacetime, the army is degraded because every creative mercilessly destroyed in her barracks dolboibizmom, dull red tape and bureaucracy with a bath. Career does not someone who is well prepared for combat operations, but who knows how to please their superiors, not the one who thinks his head, and the one who stupidly takes any orders from above. Is a natural selection corrupt, sycophants and idiots, most of which are deft at the top. Yes, in time of peace as if FSUs, stupid generals at the top or not. But when suddenly the army has to go into battle, there is already a very important troops will take orders, thought the great minds of intelligence, or the troops wallow conflicting instructions bewildered and frightened to death lampasonostsev.

It's one thing when in confrontation enter two human peacetime army. Then, as my friend the chief of the department of tactics, most importantly - rebate is less than your opponent. But in the Donets Basin with degraded ukroem-army fighting the most terrible enemy, which only exists - armed population, in other words - the guerrillas. On the one hand - professionals "military service", on the other hand - the professionals' military affairs. "

For those who still have not realized the obvious: military service in military matters in most cases is irrelevant. In order to engage in military affairs, must be able to creatively and proactively think. It should at least be in order to survive the war, fools do not live there long. In order to succeed in the military service, it is necessary to forget words like "initiative", "creativity", "think". Recruitment officers the less able to fight, the longer it has made a career in the peacetime army. For the generals, the war - the worst thing that can happen to them. Why do they need a war? Career they have made, warm places asshole cared for, and move your buttocks of the comfortable rooms in tents and trenches they categorically do not want to! Motivation is missing.

And here at the militia Novorossia motivation okay. Firstly, they are all - volunteers, that is not going to fight for his career and a fat pension, and then to protect their families, to defeat the enemy. And they are interested in how to do it in the shortest time the most efficient way and at the same time, of course, to stay alive. This is art in its purest form - the complex task in a rapidly changing environment, lack of resources and time. Therefore, military training, they learn quickly and top commanders nominated, deed proven aptitude and not those who have friends in the General Staff or dad - oligarch.

This is the answer to the question why seemingly unprofessional militia much more ready than even the best of the human MAT like airmobile brigades. Of course, full of militia rabble - and the lads, dressed camouflage, and eternally drunken Cossack mummers, but weather they do not. At the hearing units such as the battalion "Hold" commanded technician electrician 6th discharge Zaharchenko Alexander, now chairman of the Council of Ministers of the DNI, the battalion "Ghost", headed by the former lead singer of the male ensemble Alexei Brain, a battalion of "Dawn", commanded by a former official inspection for consumer Rights Protection Igor Carpenter (true, he graduated from a military school still in the scoop, but his military career and did not), a detachment of Arseny Pavlova (Motorola), grouping Bezlera (Imp) and several others. A separate issue - the leader of the Slavic militia "re-enactor" Igor Girkin (arrow) - this should be considered as a professional partisan (Transnistria, Yugoslavia). At the same time, he managed to become a professional in the counterinsurgency fight (both Chechen campaigns). Examined the issue inside and out.

What happens when confronted by well-armed, but morally weak and poorly organized army with irregular poorly armed, but cohesive forces? First always defeated. Exceptions in modern military history is not so much. For example, the Israeli army has been relatively successful in fighting with Palestinian rebels even in their territory. The Russian army was able to defeat the Chechen rebels, albeit at the second attempt. NKVD quickly defeated the "forest brothers" in the Ukraine and the Baltic States, though the methods used in this case is not quite kosher in terms of current concepts - deportation unreliable population. However, deportation - it's just a sample of humanity in comparison to the vast guerrilla movement in Paraguay force of the Triple Alliance - total destruction by the local population. The British during the Anglo-Boer War invented concentration camps, in which also massively starved local population - the only way they were able to subdue the Boers. Hard to think of other examples of the successful suppression of the guerrillas. But hundreds of examples to the contrary - Somalia, Vietnam (twice), Afghanistan (five times), Iraq, Kosovo, Cuba, Algeria, etc.

So, if the Ukrainian generals, even if they have not been contacted in the academies diploma works on guerrilla movement, wanted to win in an irregular war against the rebels, they should not have been stupid to step on the same rake as their Euro-American counterparts. It was necessary to apply the already proven technology - not to oppose the rebels and the regular army edifice Makhnovist rabble like ye ... ischnyh volunteer battalions and operate against them microscopic, security forces, that is, figuratively speaking, to create their insurgency inside the guerrilla zone. So the operative group acted NKGB-MGB against Bandera in the 40s, so the Israeli commandos today. Yes, the idea that having a 100-fold superiority over the enemy in power, it is necessary to act against him "mosquito" battle groups, it seems absurd, but experience shows that this approach gives maximum efficiency.

Kiev also made ​​a bid for a military large-scale punitive operation. And then I suspect that the process is not taxiing Ukrainian generals. They are unlikely to do something can steer that they demonstrated during the Crimean crisis, when they were unable to do at least some order to his troops - whether to surrender, to evacuate or to resist the "green men", go to the guerrillas. As a result, Ukrainian warriors just took over and threw out shkvarnik for the territory of military units - even greater shame is inconceivable. So, operational plans ATO clearly typeset in Western military advisers, as they also did not go to the Soviet military academies, have not studied the history of the guerrilla movement, and military science knows a lot worse than military service, they simply adapted successful as they imagined American colonial strategy to local conditions.

I must say, the philosophy of NATO military combat is radically different from our own. In the view of the Western general war would seem to be maneuvering reconnaissance, reinforced armored detect enemy and, if possible, without engaging them in battle, transmit target coordinates aviation, which destroys them with precision weapons, and then advanced mobile units move on. Linear part of following them, only sanded area and organize roadblocks on their communication lines.

From the point of view of the current NATO military melee - the lot of savages. Civilized white men are fighting in another way, they do not even the concept of small arms is very different. NATO infantry is not able to take decisive assault operations, attack with speed. Marines should not destroy the enemy using personal weapons, but only to keep it at the maximum possible distance, where it will mix with the ground attack aircraft and artillery. So, for example, the Europeans so valued precision shooting - in many European armies regular sight on the machines - 4.3-fold optics - to lead firefight at distances as large as possible.

In general, the approach of the western military quite rational - to protect their people, they have to go (or rather, to go) in good probomblennoy territory. You bet on the advantage in heavy weapons and a huge advantage in the means of intelligence, control and communications. Fight with the Papuans - the sweetest thing! But in Ukraine, this approach has two major flaws: first, to fight ukroem-warriors have to not overseas, and kakbe its territory (the question whether they believe there own, in this case is not important) and the bomb falls as if his the economy; Second, technically and professionally Ukrainian army is just at the level of the Papuans, with which white people used to fight in Africa and Asia.

Say, aviation, whom ukroem-army was sparse, and now almost gone, replaced by nothing. Contactless war not vytantsovyvaetsya. On the level of command and control systems and communications APU is generally at the most primitive level. Yeah, the troops of the boilers on the mobile phone to call headquarters, and there is also a tube does not always take, such as "dinner party, and then go take a nap, call back later." Thus leaders ATO did not know where at the moment there are separatists and had no opportunity to "point" to suppress them. Join with them in a melee - a losing cause.

Attempt to replace the principle of precision strikes principle of scorched earth, when artillery hit the squares proved fundamentally flawed. Firstly, it is literally shooting guns on sparrows, the rebels would simply leave the shelled areas, if any, were there. Secondly, ukry came as I put it - the type of release its territory from terrorists, not from the public, which also carries a major loss from shelling. After such a "liberation" of the world is becoming fundamentally possible as long as the will not be destroyed all the locals. And so the use of incendiary weapons in cities and tactical missiles "Tochka-U" has no rational explanation.

Although, it is (along with many others) just is understandable. The purpose of the war being waged by the West in the Donbass hands of crazed svidomitov - not a victory, not defeat the separatists, and the creation by committing suicide Ukraine protracted regional war in Europe, which should be drawn of the Russian Federation. When it became clear that Russia does not want war categorically intermeddle, West headed for the extension of the zone of bloody chaos. War may soon flared up throughout the territory of the former country. What to do this? Just substitute a rout ukroem-army, which was done. Kiev warriors pushed to suicide assault Lugansk and Donetsk, which would mean not just a defeat, and destroy all the army.

Why assault major cities means suicide for ukrov? The fact is that if in the army has a clear advantage over the militias, at least numerically, in urban fighting this factor no longer plays any role. What would have ended the assault, such as Donetsk, make up your mind ukry it take? Militia would allow the enemy to get involved in the city and even to take strategic points, then the attacking group would be cracked, blocked and destroyed piecemeal. I repeat, that the factor of numerical superiority ceases to work in the city. Let's say the city is attacked 20000th grouping, and the city's defenders have only 10 thousand bayonets. After dissection of the enemy forces on 5 isolated pockets of resistance, the defenders can use to block the 3-4 thousand soldiers, and 6000th grouping used to destroy trapped in the boilers. But more important here is not that they can create a numerical advantage wherever they wish, but the fact that they can maneuver not only manpower, but also fire. We militias are known to have a lot of captured armored vehicles and artillery. Blocked Ukrainian groups will not be able to give each other any help, and you try to escape will suffer huge losses, because they will be able to withdraw only to sweep the streets, and even breaking the barricades.

Actually, about the same scheme insurgents today eliminate "boilers" in which they locked Ukrainian "liberators." In the melee did not come, and hammering inmates artillery, waiting until they either go on break and polyagut under massive fire or surrender. Militias successfully carry out operations to liquidate the "boiler", even without the numerical advantage. In urban areas the defeat ukrov would just be total. Could Ukrainian army to carry out a successful assault in Donetsk? It's not even hypothetically possible. For example, if the field to break the enemy's defense is considered necessary to achieve a threefold superiority of forces, to ensure the successful cleaning of the city ceteris paribus to be achieved already sixfold superiority. If Donetsk defends 10,000 militia, where is ukry take 60,000 bombers to storm the city? And given the qualitative superiority over the separatists ukroem-warriors, it can hardly be compensated even 15-fold numerical superiority that showed the helplessness of the Ukrainian army, which she took when trying to attack or at least block the Slaviansk.

Thus, the directors of this great bloody spectacle tried to draw Russia in the war in the Ukraine by the genocide of the population of 100-thousand of the city. Failed. Was used non-conventional weapons (phosphorous munitions) - did not work. Downed Malaysian "Boeing" - again, to no avail. Were launched tactical missiles "Tochka-U", and it is unclear where they tried dolbanut and why they have not flown to the target. Reaction on the part of the Russian Federation has not followed. Equally indifferent Kremlin looked at this war began when punishers "Stalingrad" Lugansk and Donetsk. On the contrary, Russia profitably played this round, instead of sending in Lugansk green men white "KAMAZ".

Well, then there is the last one, but a very effective move - plums Ukrainian army and the whole of the former Ukrainian dive into the chaos of civil war. And turn ukroem-army stuffing at Donetsk streets there is no need, the army scuttle ... By the way, for those who do not understand the difference between escape and retreat, I explain: if the soldiers throw their weapons, ammunition and other property, to save their lives - it is flight. And if the troops do not leave the enemy weapons - so they retreat. So, ukry is run, leaving the militia "Grad" whole battalions and armored units of tens. The first commonly flee officers. If you believe this is very convincing directory, punishers gave insurgents already under 200 tanks and armored vehicles, a little less than they are irretrievably lost in the fighting. Artillery trophies militias do not look impressive, but probably only because the guns and mortars are not so often fall into the lenses of photographers, through which made ​​the roster.

Now, apparently, there is a fracture in the war - the junta troops are on the verge of final defeat, and Donetsk and Lugansk separatists anticipate embodied in the reality of their dreams - the creation of a large New Russia. But they will have to retake Kharkov and Odessa. Weapons for such a large-scale operation of the junta has provided in excess. Would the population of the south-east in the New Russia - a question. But it is very large, many temptation to resolve this issue by force of arms ...

It remains to clarify the economic background of the war. Tactics based on topography, operational art to geography and strategy - Economic Geography. Why such a hurry with the junta Donbas appeasement why Western friends allowed a divorce? Least because of the energy balance of Ukraine coal occupies a very important place - its share of 32%. Many boilers operate it on coal, 80% of production is accounted for Donbass. At a time when Ukraine voluntarily gave up on Russian gas (Gas owns 44% of the country's energy, 60% egoimportiruetsya of the Russian Federation), the loss is even and sources of coal in winter can lead to the collapse of the energy system, if it suddenly comes (and scientists confidently say that if the Earth does not change its trajectory and the axis of rotation, this year's winter will happen). For the junta in case of mass riots and hungry frozen inhabitants have no chance to retain power. Consequently, for the pacification of Kiev Donbass leaders - the only way to keep the power and life. In this western "friends" and played, pushing junta war and apparently promised support. And thrown, of course. Painfully, it reminds the sacrifice of Poland in 1939

Now Poroshenko - political corpse (if Putin can save him, see below). And they fled from the Donbas, the Ukrainian army quickly transform Ukraine into a single large zone of chaos, where all run by Batko, who chieftain, who is more than guns to be more important. Well, about all sorts of Kolomoysky battalions did not say - it's ready to gangs. Scattered people of Ukraine finally able to strike a telling blow to Russia, even just a few: First, will flood across the border is not tens of thousands, and millions of refugees, and much of it will be fervently believe that they have lost all the fault of "aggressive Raska" (f-king propaganda works); Second, we will have something close two thousand km. border with wild field and somehow extinguish all the fire because burning a neighbor's house, but the sparks fly something our porch; Finally oil and gas exports to Europe through the Ukrainian gas transportation system will not be possible.

I do not think it will cause heavy damage to the EU (Eastern border states do not count), but for the export of raw materials Putin's empire it may under certain circumstances be related fatal blow. In general, for the Kremlin any bad scenario: win junta - Putin suffering huge foreign policy defeat, against the background of a deteriorating domestic economic situation spells disaster. Win militia - means fire Ukraine flared in full. Fit the Russian peacekeeping mission to Ukraine - immediately becomes the aggressor with all the consequences.

So do not be surprised if soon Vova Putin will make Herculean efforts to save the junta - and gas khalyavnykh let (well, such as for humanitarian reasons) and irrevocably give credits for the restoration of the Donbass, and separatists persuade not to go to war against Odessa and Kiev. For the Kremlin, the only way to minimize losses - freeze the conflict, turning DNR-LC in analog Transnistria (oh, shït, and contain something it will be again at our expense!) And somehow keep Poroshenko power (can not even imagine how much it will cost).

Here I see the prospects of such a close Peremogi. Svidomity continue to hate hu ... lo and yell "Muscovites knives" and hu ... lo will finance a smooth deposit ruins because of its failure to drag to the same instability and the Russian Federation. "Quilted jackets" also will pay for it all. A blasphemy, wanted to be part of the civilized world? Well, that's the place the decision - it's not that close to a toilet, but somehow dangerously close to her. A Near at shkonke also ... Anuti on his head "C0ck" vozbudaet that that and look to the side sharpening pyrnet, and obviously watching it at that incite.

(addendum my - "Svidomity " from my understanding of russian means joos, though they have other word for it - jid

You can become a slave only by voluntary consent.
I am highly allergic to circumcised souls and red flags with Venusian star on them.
failboat Show this Post
08-26-2014, 11:45 PM #3
failboat Incognito Anonymous
 
smolensk is russian? 13.gif always thought he's english.
08-27-2014, 12:12 AM #4
Octo Mother Superior
Posts:43,017 Threads:1,474 Joined:Feb 2011
He's American.
failboat Show this Post
08-27-2014, 01:52 AM #5
failboat Incognito Anonymous
 
(08-27-2014, 12:12 AM)Octo Wrote:  He's American.

i always read his posts with an english accent. chuckle.gif
08-27-2014, 01:57 AM #6
Octo Mother Superior
Posts:43,017 Threads:1,474 Joined:Feb 2011
İmage


lmao.gif
08-27-2014, 02:50 PM #7
karutzar Member
Posts:256 Threads:27 Joined:Dec 2012
This russian guerilla warfare reminds me the finnish partisan tactic during winter war. Of course Stalin has send ukrainian trops with summer clothes for winter war, but think it was intentionally - first ukrainian trops (we see what type of solders they are (sarc)) and second summer clothes, no rear supply - suicide mission.

:) As for Smolensk - I got the picture that he is russian by his russian accent when I red his posts. :) lol

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