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The Fukushima Disaster
11-30-2012, 01:08 AM #1,126
オタマジャクシ Member
Posts:1,310 Threads:32 Joined:Nov 2012
(11-27-2012, 09:03 PM)UniqueStranger Wrote:  Fuk children thyroid cancer...still waiting for more data - from which source? dunno.gif

http://www.examiner.com/video/radioactiv...-formula-1

http://www.examiner.com/article/43-of-fu...ys-it-s-ok

The question I am grappling with is which of the two sources should one believe? The Japanese Gov't or the independent doctor's second opinions?


Its a little complicated. The Japanese government is trying to calm frightened consumers who have been excited by the independent press. The government has lowered radiation limit to mollify consumers which bans some relatively safe food - which frightens the consumers more.

1. Linear no-threshold model of radiation tolerance is a lie. The author of the model John Gofman knew it was wrong but was to some extent an anti-nuclear activist. The model has no validity below 100 mS/y.
.
2. The cancer rate is minimum at around 200 mS/y. The normal background radiation is around 3.6 mS/y (US average). The cancer rate at 2 S/y is about the same as the rate at 3.6 mS/y. Keeping the radiation level below 100 mS/y is provably killing people. Admitting this would allow the anti-nuclear activists to be sued just like the tobacco companies were and would make nuclear power much cheaper.

3. Children particularly embryos are at least twice as sensitive as adults. http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/1012/mo...iging.html. This ESRI article suggests they may be 3 to 5 times more sensitive. Adults have a self repair function for radiation damage that works better if it is kept busy.

4. The US allows some foods have radiation levels up to 2000 Bq/kg (enenews says the limit is 1200). The Japanese limits were 500 Bq/kg before Fukushima and they were lowered to 100 Bq/kg and 50 Bq/kg for baby products.

5. The mercury problem with apex predators like tuna is greater than the radiation threat.

6. 70%-80 of the 3.6 mS/y average yearly dose is due to inhaled compounds (radon and so forth).

7. Only about 10% i(0.4 mS/y) s from consumables. One site equated 56000 Bq to 1.2 mS. So that would mean the US diet includes 17000+ Bq of radioactivity compounds. The average us adult consumes 1700 pounds of food a year so the average is 10 Bq/kg (I had another estimate from other sources was around 15 Bq/kg so average radioactivity in US food is around 10-15 Bq/kg).

8. http://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q1946.html
On the other hand in some places in Brazil the oranges are over 6000 Bq/kg, and tapioca in some spots in India is over 1200 Bq/kg.

9. Typical soil is 400-500 Bq/kg

10. The US is importing Japanese food that is considered unfit under the new Japanese standard (which is less that 10% of the US limit).

What to think about this...
The new Japanese food radioactivity limits (100 Bq/kg) should keep the Japanese exposure down to that of Denver (6 mS/y). The child exposure should be about 4.5 mS/y worst case. Anything below 100 mS/y should be considered safe so this should be ok assuming the municipal water is clean.

The doctors are talking about thyroid nodules - in the US about 50% of kids have them. The doctors are reporting 43% in Japan. This is really a different issue - since the thyroid problem is due to the long departed Iodine 131 and the food issues are Cesium which doesn't concentrate in the body. The thyroid cancer rate is an indicator, the thyroid abnormalities are so common they really aren't abnormal and really don't indicate anything.

Thyroid = Iodine, the Iodine is long gone and we don't accurately know the exposure so this is a wait and see exercise.

The total Iodine 131 released was 150 to 900 PB (government to alarmist figures). That would be between 1.2 ounces and a cup of Iodine 131. It's all gone.

The total Cesium 134 released was 0.83 kg (about a quart). It is about 1/2 gone.

The total Cesium 137 release was 9.2 kg or about 2 1/2 gallons.

11-30-2012, 03:23 AM #1,127
UniqueStranger Art in my heart
Posts:15,129 Threads:428 Joined:Jun 2012
Yes, interesting take on the thyroid nodule growth among children. It could also be related to pesticide use.
11-30-2012, 08:41 AM #1,128
オタマジャクシ Member
Posts:1,310 Threads:32 Joined:Nov 2012
(11-30-2012, 03:23 AM)UniqueStranger Wrote:  Yes, interesting take on the thyroid nodule growth among children. It could also be related to pesticide use.


I look at those thyroid numbers and don't know what to think.

The 43% number doesn't look to be accurate. ENENEWS was touting it in September and it didn't get traction until November.

The "Fukushima Prefecture Health Management Survey" in July showed 36% had growths. The prefecture study was in Business Insider and other neutral publications so it looks solid.

http://www.aafp.org/afp/2003/0201/p559.html
"Palpable thyroid nodules occur in 4 to 7 percent of the population, but nodules found incidentally on ultrasonography suggest a prevalence of 19 to 67 percent. ...

Thyroid nodules are four times more common in women than in men and occur more often in people who live in geographic areas with iodine deficiency. After exposure to ionizing radiation, thyroid nodules develop at a rate of 2 percent annually."


From what I can tell a year and a half out there should be less than a 2% change and all the current studies are doing is establishing a baseline. The real damage will occur in the future. The rate of thyroid nodules in Fukushima children should have been at least 34% prior to the accident.

Don't know about the pesticides. All the pesticides mentioned in the articles (aldrin, DDT and lindane) are banned pesticides. The argument in these articles that banned pesticides cause disease displays a basic ignorance of what the word "banned" means. But that doesn't mean that environment chemicals aren't having an effect.

What is a little depressing is the high percentage of the population even in affluent countries that have nutritional issues (like low iodine).
12-01-2012, 05:29 PM #1,129
UniqueStranger Art in my heart
Posts:15,129 Threads:428 Joined:Jun 2012
(11-30-2012, 08:41 AM)オタマジャクシ Wrote:  
(11-30-2012, 03:23 AM)UniqueStranger Wrote:  Yes, interesting take on the thyroid nodule growth among children. It could also be related to pesticide use.


I look at those thyroid numbers and don't know what to think.

The 43% number doesn't look to be accurate. ENENEWS was touting it in September and it didn't get traction until November.

The "Fukushima Prefecture Health Management Survey" in July showed 36% had growths. The prefecture study was in Business Insider and other neutral publications so it looks solid.

http://www.aafp.org/afp/2003/0201/p559.html
"Palpable thyroid nodules occur in 4 to 7 percent of the population, but nodules found incidentally on ultrasonography suggest a prevalence of 19 to 67 percent. ...

Thyroid nodules are four times more common in women than in men and occur more often in people who live in geographic areas with iodine deficiency. After exposure to ionizing radiation, thyroid nodules develop at a rate of 2 percent annually."


From what I can tell a year and a half out there should be less than a 2% change and all the current studies are doing is establishing a baseline. The real damage will occur in the future. The rate of thyroid nodules in Fukushima children should have been at least 34% prior to the accident.

Don't know about the pesticides. All the pesticides mentioned in the articles (aldrin, DDT and lindane) are banned pesticides. The argument in these articles that banned pesticides cause disease displays a basic ignorance of what the word "banned" means. But that doesn't mean that environment chemicals aren't having an effect.

What is a little depressing is the high percentage of the population even in affluent countries that have nutritional issues (like low iodine).


It's obviously not an exact science.

http://thyroid.about.com/od/symptomsrisk...isease.htm

Today's Fuk news:

Quote: "Now, more than one and a half years after the nuclear accident, 260,000 Japanese children are still living in the catastrophe’s radioactive contamination," Beyond Nuclear says.

One petition is directs Japanese authorities to evacuate children to non-contaminated areas of Japan. The other calls for justice and accountability following the widely recognized “man-made” nuclear disaster for which to date not one single person has been held accountable.

http://www.examiner.com/article/fukushim...evacuation

http://www.nbc.com/news-sports/today-sho...ima-plant/
12-01-2012, 06:47 PM #1,130
オタマジャクシ Member
Posts:1,310 Threads:32 Joined:Nov 2012
(12-01-2012, 05:29 PM)UniqueStranger Wrote:  It's obviously not an exact science.

http://thyroid.about.com/od/symptomsrisk...isease.htm


Not an easy disease to study. Diet, gender, environmental chemicals, genetics and radiation all affect the incidence of the disease. Separating all these factors in a uncontrolled study isn't easy.

Did find this:
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/nuclear/radia...on/121.pdf
Main points are the incidence is linearly related to exposure and the latency for Chernobyl was three years. So it is a little early to tell how good or bad the situation is.

It is surprising that to some extent it is a female disease like breast cancer (which is 100:1), in the US the ratio is 4:1, in Japan it is 3:1, in the UK it is 2:1.

12-01-2012, 06:56 PM #1,131
オタマジャクシ Member
Posts:1,310 Threads:32 Joined:Nov 2012
(11-19-2012, 12:57 PM)smart-ass Wrote:  ave to ask, what is your name here, or when replying to your post do we call you frog as your av shows?
cheers.gif


It's pronounced "otamajixyakushi", but you can just call me Pollywog.
cheers.gif
12-01-2012, 06:57 PM #1,132
UniqueStranger Art in my heart
Posts:15,129 Threads:428 Joined:Jun 2012
(12-01-2012, 06:47 PM)オタマジャクシ Wrote:  
(12-01-2012, 05:29 PM)UniqueStranger Wrote:  It's obviously not an exact science.

http://thyroid.about.com/od/symptomsrisk...isease.htm


Not an easy disease to study. Diet, gender, environmental chemicals, genetics and radiation all affect the incidence of the disease. Separating all these factors in a uncontrolled study isn't easy.

Did find this:
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/nuclear/radia...on/121.pdf
Main points are the incidence is linearly related to exposure and the latency for Chernobyl was three years. So it is a little early to tell how good or bad the situation is.

It is surprising that to some extent it is a female disease like breast cancer (which is 100:1), in the US the ratio is 4:1, in Japan it is 3:1, in the UK it is 2:1.


Well, then, perhaps they should be looking more on the interactions of hormones and chemicals, radiation, lack/too much iodine levels, etc.
12-07-2012, 05:47 PM #1,133
オタマジャクシ Member
Posts:1,310 Threads:32 Joined:Nov 2012
Video of recent Japanese 7.3 earthquake:






There was a 6.2 aftershock.
12-07-2012, 06:34 PM #1,134
UniqueStranger Art in my heart
Posts:15,129 Threads:428 Joined:Jun 2012
Updated news on the quake that hit Japan.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Five+in...story.html
12-07-2012, 09:56 PM #1,135
Accidental Stoner Member
Posts:8,966 Threads:71 Joined:Feb 2011

hiding.gif

Devilish bombs, dangerous mines, thousands of years of toxic waste.

I don't know...I'd be fine with simply using less electricity.

cheers.gif


12-08-2012, 03:29 AM #1,136
オタマジャクシ Member
Posts:1,310 Threads:32 Joined:Nov 2012
(12-07-2012, 09:56 PM)Accidental Stoner Wrote:  hiding.gif

Devilish bombs, dangerous mines, thousands of years of toxic waste.

I don't know...I'd be fine with simply using less electricity.

cheers.gif



Well, more people die from Natural Gas drilling or Coal production, or burning natural gas, or burning coal - than wiill ever be affected by nuclear power.

This is the problem the anti-nuke people have - it is really the cleanest and safest and most available form of power.

You may be fine with using less electricity. I am not.

Making a scarce resource out of something that can be produced abundantly is simply crazy.

The federal government has a monopsony on global warming research. The Federal government has spent more than 100 Billion dollars on a problem that is less that 0.15 to 0.30 °C (ie it is insignificant). This is insane. The stimulus gave 26 billion for global warming research to GISS alone.

The US is a distance second in energy consumption to China. The US consumes only 3,741,000,000 MWH each year. About 1/2 of that is non nuclear baseband power.

For the 100 Billion + that has been flushed on global warming, the US could have designed a LFTR nuclear reactor and deployed at least 90 2000 MW reactors and given them away to private industry.

Electric power would be under 5 cents per kWh everywhere in the US and been virtually pollution free.

For 100 billion dollars all of our baseband power could have been cheap non-polluting nuclear power.

Time has come to defund Climate Change research and put the money into something useful. We should invest in LFTR. We have wasted enough money on Michael Mann.
12-08-2012, 07:07 AM #1,137
Shadow Mrs. Buckwheat
Posts:12,777 Threads:1,182 Joined:Feb 2011
(12-08-2012, 03:29 AM)オタマジャクシ Wrote:  it is really the cleanest and safest and most available form of power.


Not really. Google thorium.
12-09-2012, 05:02 AM #1,138
オタマジャクシ Member
Posts:1,310 Threads:32 Joined:Nov 2012
Some reality:

Fukushima released radiation
1. About a cup of Iodine 131.
2. About a quart of Cesium 134.
3. About 2 1/2 gallons of Cesium 137

http://www.physics.isu.edu/radinf/natural.htm
16 metric tons of nuclides in an average 1 square mile by 1 ft chunk of dirt. 12 metric tons of that is thorium.

20 Japanese die from poisonous spiders and plants each year. In 30 years there will be about 600 deaths.

In the next 30 years there will be about 100 deaths from Fukushima radiation.
12-09-2012, 07:42 AM #1,139
Shadow Mrs. Buckwheat
Posts:12,777 Threads:1,182 Joined:Feb 2011
(12-09-2012, 05:02 AM)オタマジャクシ Wrote:  In the next 30 years there will be about 100 deaths from Fukushima radiation.


I'll suspend disbelief.
12-18-2012, 07:05 PM #1,140
UniqueStranger Art in my heart
Posts:15,129 Threads:428 Joined:Jun 2012
Well, it's about time!

Quote:

“The IAEA has expertise in the areas of remediation and decontamination, as well as environmental monitoring and human heath,” Mr. Amano said. “It is our hope that we will support Fukushima and at the same time serve as a bridge connecting the Prefecture and the world.”

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?Ne...86&Cr=&Cr1=



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