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The Science of Luck
01-07-2017, 09:42 PM #1
Octo Mother Superior
Posts:43,020 Threads:1,474 Joined:Feb 2011
Is the phenomenon real? Can it be harnessed?

You just flipped four heads in a row, so the next one has to be tails, right? Wrong—the odds of flipping heads or tails is still 50/50, exactly the same as it has been every other time. This is called the “gambler’s fallacy,” and, according to a study published earlier this month in PNAS, our brains may be seeking out these sorts of patterns. “A major function of the human brain is to deal with the uncertainty in the real world in order to find regularities,” says Yanlong Sun, a professor of microbial pathogenesis and immunology at Texas A&M College of Medicine and one of the study authors. Our neurons detect these patterns naturally and pay special attention to their timing, Sun says. Neurons prefer alternating patterns—it’s the brain's way of “regressing to the mean,” to correct for patterns that seem statistically unlikely. “Our study shows that our brains are probably smarter than we previously have thought, in that they are able to automatically pick up some very subtle yet important statistical structures in the environment,” he says. But this new understanding doesn’t change how Sun feels about luck overall—“As both a scientist and a person, I do believe in luck, that it is something I cannot manipulate or operate on. “

http://www.popsci.com/luck-real
01-07-2017, 09:46 PM #2
DaJavoo If looks could kilt
Posts:1,861 Threads:45 Joined:Mar 2011
(01-07-2017, 09:42 PM)Octo Wrote:  Is the phenomenon real? Can it be harnessed?

You just flipped four heads in a row, so the next one has to be tails, right? Wrong—the odds of flipping heads or tails is still 50/50, exactly the same as it has been every other time. This is called the “gambler’s fallacy,” and, according to a study published earlier this month in PNAS, our brains may be seeking out these sorts of patterns. “A major function of the human brain is to deal with the uncertainty in the real world in order to find regularities,” says Yanlong Sun, a professor of microbial pathogenesis and immunology at Texas A&M College of Medicine and one of the study authors. Our neurons detect these patterns naturally and pay special attention to their timing, Sun says. Neurons prefer alternating patterns—it’s the brain's way of “regressing to the mean,” to correct for patterns that seem statistically unlikely. “Our study shows that our brains are probably smarter than we previously have thought, in that they are able to automatically pick up some very subtle yet important statistical structures in the environment,” he says. But this new understanding doesn’t change how Sun feels about luck overall—“As both a scientist and a person, I do believe in luck, that it is something I cannot manipulate or operate on. “

http://www.popsci.com/luck-real

Sure! Pattern recognition certainly helped with our ultimate survival.
01-07-2017, 10:03 PM #3
JayRodney ⓐⓛⓘⓔⓝ
Posts:31,396 Threads:1,439 Joined:Feb 2011
I'm the money finder for whatever reason. Walking down town one day I found two €20's just laying on the ground, and within a month or so found another €20 laying on the floor in the grocery. wtf2.gif blink.gif

wonder.gif
01-08-2017, 07:06 AM #4
-NIGHTMARE- Member
Posts:743 Threads:6 Joined:Aug 2012
interesting you say that JR

For me it is Good Luck Pennies
They find me
Often
I then put in a jar usually
I seriously should do something with them
at some point
Perhaps a lucky penny table or counter
No cheating tho
Would have to be made entirely of lucky pennies only

İmage

' Welcome to My Nightmare '
It's me Show this Post
01-08-2017, 07:35 AM #5
It's me Incognito Anonymous
 
There's an episode of Red Dwarf that hypothesized that luck was a virus.
You caught it and had it until you got better.
While "sick" with it, you could do no wrong,win anything etc etc.

Animal magnetism was also a virus.
They had live virus in tubes they took sips of. Hilarious.
01-08-2017, 12:28 PM #6
JayRodney ⓐⓛⓘⓔⓝ
Posts:31,396 Threads:1,439 Joined:Feb 2011
(01-08-2017, 07:06 AM)-NIGHTMARE- Wrote:  interesting you say that JR

For me it is Good Luck Pennies
They find me
Often
I then put in a jar usually
I seriously should do something with them
at some point
Perhaps a lucky penny table or counter
No cheating tho
Would have to be made entirely of lucky pennies only

İmage

Actually that's pretty cool table!
Copper is a great color until it turns green. chuckle.gif
We don't even have pennies here, everything is rounded off to 5 cents.
I found it a little weired at first.

(01-08-2017, 07:35 AM)Its me Wrote:  There's an episode of Red Dwarf that hypothesized that luck was a virus.
You caught it and had it until you got better.
While "sick" with it, you could do no wrong,win anything etc etc.

Animal magnetism was also a virus.
They had live virus in tubes they took sips of. Hilarious.

chuckle.gif If luck is a virus, let me be sick.

wonder.gif
01-08-2017, 12:31 PM #7
Octo Mother Superior
Posts:43,020 Threads:1,474 Joined:Feb 2011
Good luck with that

blonde.gif
01-08-2017, 07:41 PM #8
UniqueStranger Art in my heart
Posts:15,064 Threads:428 Joined:Jun 2012
Odd you should post this thread about probability vs. luck. A gambler advised that when playing roulette, always choose one or both of the non-winning areas as the odds are in your favour that the next hit won't land in the previous winning area. So, my daughter and I went gambling yesterday and she only plays roulette, so I advised her to use that system and she did, but said it did not work at all.

Whenever I bring my quartz crystal with me to the casino, I always win.
01-08-2017, 07:50 PM #9
JayRodney ⓐⓛⓘⓔⓝ
Posts:31,396 Threads:1,439 Joined:Feb 2011
It's possible it aids in focusing your will and energy, I know some people swear by them.
Awfully hard to prove scientifically, but not everything can be explained.

wonder.gif
01-08-2017, 08:48 PM #10
-NIGHTMARE- Member
Posts:743 Threads:6 Joined:Aug 2012
(01-08-2017, 12:28 PM)JayRodney Wrote:  
(01-08-2017, 07:06 AM)-NIGHTMARE- Wrote:  interesting you say that JR

For me it is Good Luck Pennies
They find me
Often
I then put in a jar usually
I seriously should do something with them
at some point
Perhaps a lucky penny table or counter
No cheating tho
Would have to be made entirely of lucky pennies only

İmage

Actually that's pretty cool table!
Copper is a great color until it turns green. chuckle.gif

Been checking out info..

use only pre-1982 coins

for others:
Using an Eraser (For 1982 Pennies and After)

Grab a dirty penny and an eraser. While this method should work on any penny, it's safe on the more recent ones, while the previous methods are not. The acidity of methods 1-4 will turn your zinc pennies black.
After 1982, copper became too expensive to justify using on a coin just not worth anything. Therefore, zinc (a much cheaper metal) started being used.
cleaning them:
http://www.wikihow.com/Clean-Pennies

http://www.pennycollector.com/tips_clean.html

For done coin- product/like that table pic:
to prevent tarnish from returning to a cleaned coin is a good coat of Varathane Diamond Wood Finish (clear).

' Welcome to My Nightmare '
01-08-2017, 10:51 PM #11
Octo Mother Superior
Posts:43,020 Threads:1,474 Joined:Feb 2011
(01-08-2017, 07:41 PM)UniqueStranger Wrote:  Odd you should post this thread about probability vs. luck. A gambler advised that when playing roulette, always choose one or both of the non-winning areas as the odds are in your favour that the next hit won't land in the previous winning area. So, my daughter and I went gambling yesterday and she only plays roulette, so I advised her to use that system and she did, but said it did not work at all.

Whenever I bring my quartz crystal with me to the casino, I always win.

Article Wrote:/... The test subjects also performed better when they were allowed to hold on to their “lucky charms” from home while solving an anagram problem. The researchers hypothesized that the people with their lucky charms by their side persisted at problems longer because they felt more effective, like they had the assistance of some other power. It’s the same logic that Alcoholics Anonymous has used to help people get sober and stay that way—people feel empowered when they think that someone else is helping them, so they actually do better at the tasks at hand.

yup.gif
01-09-2017, 03:57 AM #12
UniqueStranger Art in my heart
Posts:15,064 Threads:428 Joined:Jun 2012
(01-08-2017, 10:51 PM)Octo Wrote:  
(01-08-2017, 07:41 PM)UniqueStranger Wrote:  Odd you should post this thread about probability vs. luck. A gambler advised that when playing roulette, always choose one or both of the non-winning areas as the odds are in your favour that the next hit won't land in the previous winning area. So, my daughter and I went gambling yesterday and she only plays roulette, so I advised her to use that system and she did, but said it did not work at all.

Whenever I bring my quartz crystal with me to the casino, I always win.

Article Wrote:/... The test subjects also performed better when they were allowed to hold on to their “lucky charms” from home while solving an anagram problem. The researchers hypothesized that the people with their lucky charms by their side persisted at problems longer because they felt more effective, like they had the assistance of some other power. It’s the same logic that Alcoholics Anonymous has used to help people get sober and stay that way—people feel empowered when they think that someone else is helping them, so they actually do better at the tasks at hand.

yup.gif

Yes, it's magic.



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