NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% to 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 17th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The impact could spark bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.
So far today, solar activity is low. However, that could be the calm before the storm. The magnetic field of big sunspot AR1654 has grown more complex. It is now classified as a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field, which means it harbors energy for X-class eruptions.